My take on the classic car market.

"Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street." (demon-xanth) 08/09/2017 at 12:17 • Filed to: None

5

12

Cars:

Want to know what cars are going to be huge in 30-40 years? Look at what kids drive and what they want to drive. If it’s what they drive and fun, it’ll be a classic. If it’s slightly out of reach but that rich kid of the school got one when he turned 16, probably gonna be a classic. The downside? In 20 years, it’s not going to be a classic. And in 60 years, it’s going to drop back down. Today’s classics are almost always invariably the cars people in their 40-60s range loved when they were kids.

Pickup trucks:

A running/driving pickup truck will always be able to find someone that loves it. Make, model, year, equipment. The only thing holding trucks back are rust and emission laws. Numbers matching really isn’t a thing, V8s are always a plus but not even that is required. Stock or modified? Whatever. Regular cab short beds tend to have the most “collector” value as they have a kind of “free spirit” attitude to them. However their market really isn’t a collector market. People buy old trucks, clean them up, and use them. Nobody flips trucks like they do cars because there is no money in it. The truck market is one of “love of the type” vs “love of the model”. Even old pickups get used as trucks regularly.

Commercial trucks:

These tend to “die” when their operating costs exceed their income potential. Rare ones do get restored, some are left in “as is” condition and just mechanically restored. But cases of these are pure labors of love. Someone sees a truck, falls in love, and cares for it. No profit is going to be had here.

Super cars:

They tend to be stable as a whole, not really gaining nor losing much value as their value is tied more into how the economy is doing compared to the year since a large section of the market sees these as pure unobtanium.

crowmolly > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:27

1

Also there’s what I call the Desert Eagle effect .

Famous video game and movie cars will also grow in value.

Party-vi > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:35

5

“And in 60 years, it’s going to drop back down.”

This is why I just picked up a 1953 356 for $5,000.

Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. > Party-vi 08/09/2017 at 12:38

0

Yep, all those ‘58 Corvettes and ‘57 Chevys have been taking hits as the people who craved them are rolling into assisted living facilities.

RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire > crowmolly 08/09/2017 at 12:48

1

aka the “Initial-D” tax on the AE86 Corolla.

RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:53

0

Something tells me he was being facetious ...

crowmolly > RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire 08/09/2017 at 12:54

0

Bingo. Great example.

nermal > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:56

0

Bold Prediction:

DSMs will shoot up in value in the next 10 yrs. The kids that grew up on F&F are getting adult jobs and $$$ now.

lone_liberal > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:57

0

Pretty much spot on but I’d add something that includes rare desirable cars, like the Ferrari 250 GTO, that for reasons that include aesthetics, and racing history appreciate in to the stratosphere and will always be valued more like a Rembrandt than a car.

crowmolly > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 12:58

0

I think he was joking.

You aren’t exactly wrong though... shows like GoodGuys and Lead East are seeing less attendance as the hot rod scene cools off for the moment.

The bubbles don’t really burst for limited-survivor stuff. Hemi Cuda convertible is an example.

Nothing > Demon-Xanth knows how to operate a street. 08/09/2017 at 13:01

1

It depends on your definition of classic. My brain now views a classic as any well preserved older car that’s still on the road today.

If you’re talking good prices for classics, for lower tier cars to command any kind of price, they also need to be a limited run/performance model. 944? It’s cool. Find a 944 S2, price significantly higher. Same with pretty much any muscle cars. For the most part, value for base models in really good condition have simply trended near the inflation line. Values for performance models outpaces inflation.

Being in my 40s now and from rural Americana, I wanted pretty much anything 60s as a kid. (Hey, I have a ‘67 Cougar now!) Imports were some weird abstract I read about in magazines. A place with GM plants and a heavy union population, was very anti-import.

WiscoProud > lone_liberal 08/09/2017 at 14:43

1

Once you get into that strata of vehicles, the art world is a better proxy than the classic car market.

WiscoProud > nermal 08/09/2017 at 14:44

0

You’re probably right. They turbo AWD ones are already getting more and more popular as people realize just how potent they can be. Although, I have a feeling it will be like the WRX and integra market, where its damn near impossible to find stock ones.